Inicio tema 10

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diff --git a/gpds/n.lyx b/gpds/n.lyx
index 247d394..b7422d2 100644
--- a/gpds/n.lyx
+++ b/gpds/n.lyx
@@ -355,5 +355,19 @@ filename "n9.lyx"
 
 \end_layout
 
+\begin_layout Chapter
+Análisis y gestión de riesgos
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+\begin_inset CommandInset include
+LatexCommand input
+filename "na.lyx"
+
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
 \end_body
 \end_document
diff --git a/gpds/na.lyx b/gpds/na.lyx
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ae5447a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/gpds/na.lyx
@@ -0,0 +1,1058 @@
+#LyX 2.3 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/
+\lyxformat 544
+\begin_document
+\begin_header
+\save_transient_properties true
+\origin unavailable
+\textclass book
+\begin_preamble
+\usepackage{tikz}
+\end_preamble
+\use_default_options true
+\begin_modules
+algorithm2e
+\end_modules
+\maintain_unincluded_children false
+\language spanish
+\language_package default
+\inputencoding auto
+\fontencoding global
+\font_roman "default" "default"
+\font_sans "default" "default"
+\font_typewriter "default" "default"
+\font_math "auto" "auto"
+\font_default_family default
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+\font_sc false
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+\font_sf_scale 100 100
+\font_tt_scale 100 100
+\use_microtype false
+\use_dash_ligatures true
+\graphics default
+\default_output_format default
+\output_sync 0
+\bibtex_command default
+\index_command default
+\paperfontsize default
+\spacing single
+\use_hyperref false
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+\use_geometry false
+\use_package amsmath 1
+\use_package amssymb 1
+\use_package cancel 1
+\use_package esint 1
+\use_package mathdots 1
+\use_package mathtools 1
+\use_package mhchem 1
+\use_package stackrel 1
+\use_package stmaryrd 1
+\use_package undertilde 1
+\cite_engine basic
+\cite_engine_type default
+\biblio_style plain
+\use_bibtopic false
+\use_indices false
+\paperorientation portrait
+\suppress_date false
+\justification true
+\use_refstyle 1
+\use_minted 0
+\index Index
+\shortcut idx
+\color #008000
+\end_index
+\secnumdepth 3
+\tocdepth 3
+\paragraph_separation indent
+\paragraph_indentation default
+\is_math_indent 0
+\math_numbering_side default
+\quotes_style french
+\dynamic_quotes 0
+\papercolumns 1
+\papersides 1
+\paperpagestyle default
+\tracking_changes false
+\output_changes false
+\html_math_output 0
+\html_css_as_file 0
+\html_be_strict false
+\end_header
+
+\begin_body
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Un 
+\series bold
+riesgo de un proyecto
+\series default
+ es un evento o condición incierto, llamado 
+\series bold
+evento de riesgo
+\series default
+, con una o más 
+\series bold
+causas
+\series default
+ de que pueda ocurrir, y que de producirse tiene un efecto positivo o negativo
+ (el 
+\series bold
+impacto
+\series default
+) en uno o varios objetivos del proyecto.
+ Si el efecto es positivo, el riesgo es 
+\series bold
+positivo
+\series default
+ o una 
+\series bold
+oportunidad
+\series default
+, y si es negativo, el riesgo es 
+\series bold
+negativo
+\series default
+ o una 
+\series bold
+amenaza
+\series default
+.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+La 
+\series bold
+gestión de riesgos del proyecto
+\series default
+ es una serie de procesos para identificar; analizar, y planificar e implementar
+ respuestas a, los riesgos del proyecto, para aumentar la probabilidad y
+ el impacto de los riesgos positivos y disminuir los de los negativos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Distinguimos entre 
+\series bold
+riesgos conocidos
+\series default
+, identificados y analizados para los que se puede planificar una respuesta
+ usando la reserva de contingencia, y los 
+\series bold
+riesgos desconocidos
+\series default
+, que no pueden gestionarse proactivamente y a los que se responde con la
+ reserva de gestión.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+La 
+\series bold
+mitigación de riesgos
+\series default
+ consiste en planificar con antelación para reducir el impacto o la probabilidad
+ de los riesgos.
+ Una 
+\series bold
+salvaguarda
+\series default
+ es un procedimiento o mecanismo tecnológico que reduce el impacto o la
+ probabilidad de un riesgo.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+El área de conocimiento Gestión de los Riesgos del Proyecto de PMBOK tiene
+ los siguientes procesos:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+De planificación:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_deeper
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+Planificar la gestión de los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+Identificar los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+Realizar el análisis cualitativo de riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+Realizar el análisis cuantitativo de riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+Planificar la respuesta a los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\end_deeper
+\begin_layout Itemize
+De ejecución:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_deeper
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+\begin_inset Argument item:1
+status open
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+6.
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+
+Implementar la respuesta a los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\end_deeper
+\begin_layout Itemize
+De monitoreo y control:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_deeper
+\begin_layout Enumerate
+\begin_inset Argument item:1
+status open
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+7.
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+
+Monitorear los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\end_deeper
+\begin_layout Section
+Planificación de la gestión de riesgos
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Una 
+\series bold
+estructura de desglose de los riesgos
+\series default
+ (
+\series bold
+RBS
+\series default
+, 
+\emph on
+\lang english
+Risk Breakdown Structure
+\emph default
+\lang spanish
+) es una estructura de clasificación jerárquica de las fuentes de riesgos
+ para identificar y categorizar riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+La probabilidad de un riesgo se puede medir con una 
+\series bold
+escala relativa
+\series default
+ o 
+\series bold
+cualitativa
+\series default
+, con valores como 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+muy baja
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+baja
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+mediana
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+alta
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+ o 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+muy alta
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, o con 
+\series bold
+probabilidades numéricas
+\series default
+ aproximadas, con una escala general cuantitativa y discreta con valores
+ como 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.1$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.3$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.5$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.7$
+\end_inset
+
+ y 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.9$
+\end_inset
+
+.
+ De igual modo, el impacto en cada uno de los objetivos 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+clásicos
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+ ((coste, tiempo, alcance y calidad) se puede medir con una escala cualitativa,
+ con valores como 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+muy bajo
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+bajo
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+moderado
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+alto
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+ y 
+\begin_inset Quotes cld
+\end_inset
+
+muy alto
+\begin_inset Quotes crd
+\end_inset
+
+, o con una numérica, con valores como 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.05$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.1$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.2$
+\end_inset
+
+, 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.4$
+\end_inset
+
+ y 
+\begin_inset Formula $0.8$
+\end_inset
+
+.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Una 
+\series bold
+matriz de probabilidad e impacto
+\series default
+ es una tabla de la forma:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+\align center
+\begin_inset Tabular
+<lyxtabular version="3" rows="6" columns="8">
+<features tabularvalignment="middle">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<column alignment="center" valignment="top">
+<row>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\series bold
+Probabilidad
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="1" alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" bottomline="true" leftline="true" rightline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\series bold
+Amenazas
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
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+\end_inset
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+<cell multicolumn="1" alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" bottomline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\series bold
+Oportunidades
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
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+\begin_inset Text
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+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
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+</cell>
+</row>
+<row>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{1}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{1}c_{1}$
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+
+
+\end_layout
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+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
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+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
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+\end_inset
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+
+\end_layout
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+
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+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" rightline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
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+\end_layout
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+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
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+\end_layout
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+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\vdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\vdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+</row>
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+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}c_{1}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\cdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" rightline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}c_{m}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}c_{m}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\cdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}c_{1}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" leftline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $p_{n}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+</row>
+<row>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $c_{1}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\cdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $c_{m}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $c_{m}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $\cdots$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" topline="true" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+\begin_inset Formula $c_{n}$
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+</row>
+<row>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="1" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\series bold
+Impacto negativo
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="2" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="2" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="1" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\series bold
+Impacto positivo
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="2" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell multicolumn="2" alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+<cell alignment="center" valignment="top" usebox="none">
+\begin_inset Text
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+</cell>
+</row>
+</lyxtabular>
+
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Donde 
+\begin_inset Formula $1\geq p_{1}\geq\dots\geq p_{n}\geq0$
+\end_inset
+
+ es la escala de probabilidades y 
+\begin_inset Formula $0\leq c_{1}\leq\dots\leq c_{n}\leq1$
+\end_inset
+
+ es la escala de impactos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Standard
+Un 
+\series bold
+plan de gestión de riesgos
+\series default
+ describe como se estructurará y realizará la gestión de riesgos en el proyecto,
+ e incluye:
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Metodología:
+\series default
+ Métodos, herramientas y fuentes de información que se pueden usar para
+ gestionar los riesgos.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Roles y responsabilidades:
+\series default
+ Líder, apoyo y miembros del equipo de gestión de riesgos para cada tipo
+ de actividad del plan.
+ Personas asignadas a esos roles y sus responsabilidades.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Presupuesto:
+\series default
+ Recursos y costes estimados necesarios para la gestión de riesgos, para
+ incluirlos en la línea base de coste.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Calendario:
+\series default
+ Cuándo y con qué frecuencia se realizará el proceso de gestión de riesgos
+ en el ciclo de vida del proyecto y qué actividades de gestión de riesgos
+ se incluirán en el cronograma.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Categorías de riesgo,
+\series default
+ por ejemplo con un RBS.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Definiciones de probabilidad e impacto de los riesgos.
+
+\series default
+ Escalas a usar.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+
+\series bold
+Matriz de probabilidad e impacto.
+\end_layout
+
+\begin_layout Itemize
+\begin_inset Note Note
+status open
+
+\begin_layout Plain Layout
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_inset
+
+
+\end_layout
+
+\end_body
+\end_document